Skip to main content
Risk warning

thorped.io is impersonal model output from public Polymarket data — not investment advice. No positions ever settled. Binary contracts can lose 100% of stake.

FSingle-leg theta model

DisabledMath basis: BS digital + theta heuristicPath-dependent: NO
Disabled

Naked single-leg binary with an empirical premium term; apparent edge is model error, not profit. This variant is shown for transparency in the catalog and is not included in main opportunity ranking, filters, APR totals, or capacity totals.

Legs1
Branches2
CategoryBeginner
LifecycleDisabled

Strategy semantics

Disabled. F is a naked single-leg binary with an empirical theta premium layered on top of digital EV. The premium was not theoretically grounded or empirically validated, so its apparent edge is treated as model error. It is shown for transparency only.

When it works · when it fails

Works when
  • Audit review of why heuristic premiums are not enough for public lifecycle enablement
  • Historical comparison against disabled D/E-MAKER and research-only C-DEEP
Fails when
  • Any main-list ranking, capacity total, APR total, or public filter surface
  • Any assumption that an empirical theta term proves an economic edge

How to enter

Read-only mechanics and sizing context. Public docs expose no wallet, order, or account-specific controls.

Step 1Disabled: no public construction path is exposed.
Step 2The one-leg theta model remains documented only to explain historical analysis.

How to exit

Read-only scenario notes for path, timing, and barrier risk. Any off-dashboard workflow remains outside this public interface.

Disabled: no public monitoring workflow is exposed.Read-only
Review as a model-risk example, not an operational variant.Read-only