BTCNESTED-4LTRADE+25.0%Expected · prob-weighted
+34.0%Conditional · if barriers hold
−40.0%+60.0%
outer NO + inner YES + inner YES + outer NO
$25$1.1KStake → Depth
$0.07Entry / $1
3:1:1:38s ago
IV ≠ RVwide spread
DocsWhat is a corridor?
A corridor is a bet that price stays put.
A corridor combines binary threshold markets so the payoff is high if the underlying ends inside a narrow zone, and low if it breaks out. The public dashboard stays read-only; the rest is bookkeeping.
TL;DRSame maths as an options iron condor / butterfly, expressed with Polymarket's threshold markets. Best case: a few hundred percent annualised. Worst case: total loss of the modeled cost. Capacity is small.
01 — HOW IT WORKS
Three pieces, in order: a market, a pair, a shape.
A corridor is built up from Polymarket primitives you can verify yourself. No black box, no off-chain "structured product" — every leg is a contract you can see on the orderbook.
STEP 01
A threshold market
Polymarket has thousands of questions like "will BTC touch $80K by May 30?" YES + NO always sum to $1. Buy NO at $0.59 — if BTC never touches $80K, you collect $1.Why $0.59? The market implies a 41% chance BTC touches $80K — so YES costs $0.41, NO costs $0.59. They always sum to $1.
STEP 02
Two legs make a corridor
Buy NO at $80K and NO at $77.5K. Each pays $1 only if its barrier is never touched before expiry. If neither side is touched — you collect $2. If one barrier is touched (even briefly), that leg dies and you get $1. Both touched: $0.
STEP 03
Inner legs add bonus
Add YES legs at $78K and $79K. Each pays an extra $1 if BTC touches that level while the outer barriers stay intact. Best case: floor + 2 bonuses = $3+. That's NESTED-4L.
02 — TRY IT YOURSELF
Drag the price. Watch the payoff.
A simplified closing-based illustration of a 4-leg corridor at $77.5K–$80K. Net entry cost is $1.50. Slide the BTC price below — the payoff updates live.
Payoff$4.00
Entry cost−$1.50
Net P&L+$2.50
Real Polymarket corridors are path-dependent — a barrier dies the moment price touches it, even if price later returns to the zone. This playground only shows the closing price for clarity.
03 — WHERE THE EDGE LIVES
Wings are overpriced. We sell them.
On Polymarket, threshold contracts far from the current price (the wings) tend to trade above their fair lognormal probability — partly because retail buyers love lottery tickets, partly because few people are willing to take the other side.
A corridor sells those wings indirectly: buying NO at a far strike is the same as selling YES on a low-probability event. Stack a couple of those, and you've collected the wing premium while the floor protects you in the middle.
04 — WHAT CAN HAPPEN
Three outcomes. Equal weight. No surprises.
Real numbers from a live BTC NESTED-4L corridor at $77.5K–$80K, 11 days to expiry, $915 in. Each scenario shows the modeled probability and the dollar P&L.
Worst · 36% modeled
BTC breaks one outer strike
Price slips below $77.5K or rallies above $80K before expiry. Both NO legs that were guarding the zone resolve to $0. Inner bonuses never pay either.
Net P&L−$915Central · 46% modeled
BTC stays in the zone, no inner touch
Both outer NO legs resolve to $1 each — floor payoff $1,000. But the inner YES bonuses never trigger because price didn't touch either inner barrier.
Net P&L+$85Best · 18% modeled
Stays in zone, touches both inner barriers
Floor plus both inner YES legs trigger — total payoff $3,000. Best case fires when realised vol is just right: enough to touch the inner barriers, not enough to break out.
Net P&L+$2,08505 — THE UNFLATTERING TRUTH
This is a micro-scale opportunity.
$5–10K
total fillable capacity per year, across every corridor we track.
If we run every corridor we track at full size, total deployed capital across the year is $5–10K. Headline central APRs reach +100% to +400%, but after fees and slippage that produces $200–500/month gross profit for the entire system — roughly 30–60% on deployed capital, only because the deployment itself is so small.
If you came here looking for a yield product to allocate $50K into, this is the wrong page. Poly Finder is a screening tool for operators willing to chase $20–$2,000 fills.
06 — THE 11 CURRENT VARIANTS
Different shapes for different mispricings.
The payoff curve is the variant's fingerprint. Each tile links to mechanics, status, rationale, and risk notes. Three variants were removed on 2026-05-16 after live-data forensic and remain preserved for context.
Active
5NESTED-4LActive
4-leg iron condor: outer NO insurance + inner YES touch bonuses. The flagship corridor.
Read variant docsWINGED-NNActive
Outer YES wings + inner NO body; carry with lottery hedges outside the range.
Read variant docsB-ADJ-PREActive (gated)
2-leg adjacent-strike bet using synthetic-NO basis and pre-adjusted drift.
Read variant docsT-PAIRActive
Temporal pair: 2 legs on same market, different expiries; profits from term-structure mispricing.
Read variant docsRANGE-NNActive
2-leg symmetric NO + NO floor range setup on a single event.
Read variant docsResearch-only
1Docs/catalog onlyManual
1Created upstream in the bot/collector layerPending
1Sound designs being wiredDisabled
3Transparency onlyRemoved
32026-05-16 · PR #199GRemoved
EV = 0 by mathematical identity (YES + NO = $1 invariant on Polymarket binary markets).
Read variant docsB-ADJ-HOLDRemoved
Semantic mismatch — variant was a mark-to-model of an existing position, NOT an entry signal.
Read variant docsC-ADJ-DOWNRemoved
0 promotions ever; max_ev = $0.
Read variant docs07 — READING A CARD
Ten fields, each one earning its place.
Every corridor card follows the same anatomy. Read it from top-left to bottom-right — that's the order of importance.
1
Asset · variant
Underlying coin and corridor variant. Variant chips are clickable — each opens its glossary entry.
2
Public status pill
TRADABLE (green) — the model is confident enough to surface the trade. RESEARCH (amber) — interesting but the model flagged it for review; visible for transparency, never auto-traded.
3
σ trust badge
Shown only when volatility data is real. IV+RV = both implied (Deribit) and realized (Binance) sources fresh; RV only = no implied — degraded. When the source falls back to a heuristic, the badge is hidden and the σ-strip switches to a low-confidence layout — don't trust the APR.
4
SRI · holding period
SRI is the EU 1–7 risk indicator (most corridors land 5–7). The day count is time to expiry.
5
Expected APR
Probability-weighted annualised return across all three branches — the model's honest EV. When this number is negative the trade is unattractive even if the conditional looks great.
6
Conditional APR
What you'd annualise to if the corridor's barriers hold — the trader-convention number. Always shown next to Expected so the gap between hope and EV stays visible.
7
APR range bar
Visual spread from worst-case (red) through expected (marker) to best-case (green). Quick check whether the upside justifies the downside — narrow bars mean tightly constrained payoffs.
8
Vol source dispersion
IV σ X · RV σ Y · Δ Z% — implied vs realised volatility with the gap. When Δ is yellow the sources disagree by >12% — proceed carefully, the σ used for pricing may be off.
9
Stake → Depth
Stake is the bot's target position notional. Depth is the tighter side of order-book depth (entry vs exit). The micro-bar visualises how small the bot's slice is relative to available liquidity. Hover for the full 3-field breakdown.
10
Risk chips
Structure-specific warnings. The Binary chip (when present) means all-or-nothing payoff — on breach you lose 100% of stake, not a fraction. Other chips flag path-dependence, exit discipline required, Kelly bounds, etc.
08 — WHAT TO EXPECT
Set the right expectations before you start.
What this is
- A screening tool for prediction-market traders who size positions carefully.
- A way to see modeled APR, capacity, lifecycle, and risk side-by-side in a read-only view.
- A catalog that keeps account-specific actions outside the public dashboard.
- Best suited to operators chasing $20 – $2,000 fills.
What it isn't
- Not a yield product, ETF, or "set-and-forget" allocator.
- Not financial advice. Most corridors have EV near zero or negative after fees.
- Not custodial — we never touch your funds; nothing executes automatically.
- Not for size — total system capacity is in the low thousands per month.
Review the lifecycle catalog.
The catalog separates active, research-only, manual, pending, disabled, and removed variants so single-leg model failures are not mistaken for current opportunities.