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Risk warning

thorped.io is impersonal model output from public Polymarket data — not investment advice. No positions ever settled. Binary contracts can lose 100% of stake.

T-PAIRTwo-leg temporal

ActiveMath basis: Term-structure spreadPath-dependent: NO
Legs2
Branches2
CategoryAdvanced
LifecycleActive

Strategy semantics

Temporal pair setup: 2 legs on the same market but different expiries (e.g. week 1 vs week 3). Profits from term-structure mispricing or convergence of the two horizons.

When it works · when it fails

Works when
  • Same market with multiple expiries available
  • Term structure shows IV / probability mismatch between the two horizons
  • Stable underlying (no large directional move expected over the pair window)
Fails when
  • Single expiry available — no temporal pair possible
  • Both expiries fairly priced (no term-structure edge to exploit)
  • T1 / T2 ratio extreme (>3:1 or <1.5:1) — non-comparable legs

How to enter

Read-only mechanics and sizing context. Public docs expose no wallet, order, or account-specific controls.

Step 1Identify a market with two liquid expiries where the IV / probability spread across horizons exceeds the expected cost basis.
Step 2Size per standard 1:1 leg ratio (see Sizing field). Both legs enter at approximately the same time.
Step 3Note: σ source is currently deribit-iv only (fallback trust tier). Check the σ-trust badge before entering — the 'SUT' risk chip signals a single-source σ estimate.
Sizing1:1

How to exit

Read-only scenario notes for path, timing, and barrier risk. Any off-dashboard workflow remains outside this public interface.

Monitor the term-structure spread daily. Close both legs when the spread compresses to the cost basis.Read-only
If either leg approaches expiry with the spread still open, close the near-leg first to avoid delivery risk.Read-only
Full monitoring procedures and exit playbook to be published in Phase5E.Read-only

Recent corridors

Last 10 public candidates with this variant. Select a row for the full read-only detail.

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